Indexes tumbled Tuesday after word of massive losses at Citi and a slump in retail sales. Intel's earnings miss could pressure the market Wednesday
Some days, it seems the bad news never ends: Your car needs a new muffler, your dog bit the mail carrier, Grandma's cutting you out of the will. Wall Street had one of those days Tuesday.
It started with Citi. After weeks of speculation about the depth of its subprime mortgage losses, Citigroup (
C) reported a record fourth quarter loss Tuesday morning.
Then it was the economy. Investors received a reports showing weaker than expected U.S. retail sales in December. The news exacerbated the Street’s recession fears.
And that was all before the opening bell.
Add to those developments some unfavorable news later in the session regarding marquee names like Apple (
AAPL) and Boeing (
BA), and investors decided to head for the exits, driving major stock indexes sharply lower Tuesday. Retail, oil, and financial stocks were hit particularly hard.
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 277.04 points, or 2.17%, to 12,501.11. The broader S&P 500 index dropped 35.30 points, or 2.49%, to 1,380.95. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 60.71 points, or 2.45%, to 2,417.59.
Activity in the broader market was markedly negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, 23 issues declined in price for every eight that advanced. Nasdaq breadth was 23-7 negative.
Wednesday’s session may be equally unpleasant, given a big earnings miss reported after the closing bell Tuesday by semiconductor giant Intel (
INTC).
On Wednesday, investors will have to contend with reports on consumer-level inflation, industrial production, capacity utilization for December, the NAHB Housing Price index for January, and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on economic conditions. These reports are likely to reinforce the weak economic scenario, according to S&P MarketScope. And they will no doubt be addressed when Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the economy before a Congressional panel on Thursday.
Wednesday also brings another batch of fourth-quarter earnings reports, including one from JP Morgan Chase (
JPM), a mega-bank that has so far managed to sidestep the ill effects of the subprime crisis.
Boeing shares fell 4.7% on a WSJ.com report that the company, already six months behind schedule on its new 787 Dreamliner jet program, is close to announcing additional delays that could hurt its ability to deliver as many airplanes as promised during the initial year of production.
Apple shares dropped 5.5% on investors’ perception of an “underwhelming” MacWorld, the company’s annual product showcase/technology love-in, according to S&P MarketScope. Apple introduced the MacBook Air, and unveiled new software for Apple TV that allows viewers to rent movies on its iTunes Store directly from their widescreen TV via its AppleTV product. The company says it has sold 4 million iPhones.
But it was Citi that took center stage Tuesday. The financial giant posted a net loss of $9.83 billion, or $1.99 a share, compared with a profit of $5.13 billion, or $1.03, one year earlier, on a 70% revenue drop. Citi recorded $18.1 billion in pre-tax write-downs and credit costs on subprime related direct exposures in fixed income markets, and a $4.1 billion increase in credit costs in its U.S. consumer business, mainly because of higher current and estimated losses on consumer loans.
Citi's loss of $1.99 per share was almost twice what analysts were expecting. The mean
estimates of analysts polled by Reuters called for a net loss of $1.03 a share on revenue of $10.3 billion. Many analysts said predicting Citi's results was especially difficult due to the fallout of the credit crisis.
The bank was expected to report up to $20 billion in mortgage-related losses. The company had warned it might have to write down up to $11 billion In the third quarter, it wrote down $2.2 billion.
"There were things to like and dislike" in Citigroup's results, said Jeff Harte, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill. On the one hand, by raising an extra $12.5 billion through the issue of convertible securities, questions about the adequacy of Citi's capital should end, Harte wrote. However, "credit quality continues to deteriorate," he added.
The beleaguered bank announced additional steps to shore up its balance sheet. As widely expected, the company said it would eliminate 4,200 jobs and cut its quarterly cash dividend by 41% to 32 cents from 54 cents.
And the company raised another $12.5 billion via the private placement of convertible preferred securities, including a $6.88 billion investment from the Government of Singapore Investment Corp.
Among the other investors: A foundation headed by former Citi CEO Sandy Weill, and longtime Citi investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. The Saudi investor said his Citi investment shows his belief in the company's long-term success and profitability and stake remains below 4.9% ownership threshold.
The company also announced a public offering of an additional $2 billion in convertible preferred and another offering of straight preferred securities, all in response to public demand. The company also plans to sell non-core assets.
In a conference call with analysts and investors Tuesday, Citi said it saw its U.S.
credit quality deteriorate at an accelerating rate throughout the fourth quarter. The company said deflated home prices, high energy and food costs, and rising unemployment are weighing on consumers’ ability to keep up with their payments.
After the call, Standard & Poor's equity analyst Frank Braden cut his 2008 earnings per share estimate for Citi to $3.58 from $3.74 to reflect his view of rising credit losses in the company’s U.S. consumer segment. “Headcount was not reduced as much as we expected,” he wrote in a note Tuesday, though Citi says that such reductions will be ongoing.
Braden says the $14.2 billion infusion helps Citi's capital base, in his view, but notes the company still maintains $37.3 billion in total direct subprime exposure.
Goldman Sachs analyst William Tanona wrote in a note Tuesday that he believes Citi still has sizeable exposure to subprime mortgages, which could result in additional write-downs “should [the] environment continue to soften.” Tanona says Citi’s higher reserves for credit costs signal tougher times ahead in the U.S. consumer channel, which has accounted for 30%-40% of Citi's recent profits.
The Street is still waiting for more answers from Citi on whether there are more problems on its balance sheet, and exactly which assets CEO
Vikram Pandit will dump to help ease its capital crunch.
"Our financial results this quarter are clearly unacceptable," said Pandit in a press release.
And if that wasn't enough drama for one morning, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term counterparty credit ratings on Citi to AA- from AA, reflecting the company's severe losses.
Some on Wall Street hope more news from the financial sector – even bad news – will help clear up the vast uncertainty surrounding the size of the credit problem. However, Bank of America analyst John McDonald says Citigroup's prospects for profits long-term remain unclear. "Amid increasing credit costs, balance sheet restructuring, capital raises and an uncertain banking and capital markets environment, Citi's core earnings power remains unclear and we believe the stock will continue to trade on its book value," he wrote.
Citi shares fell 7.3% Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another member of Wall Street's mendicant order announced new financing. Merrill Lynch (
MER) said it had reached agreements to issue $6.6 billion of mandatory convertible preferred stock in private placements to long-term investors, primarily from Korean Investment Corp., the Kuwait Investment Authority, and Mizuho Corporate Bank Merrill plans to announce fourth-quarter and full-year 2007 results on Thursday.
Even the smaller fry in the financial industry are looking for financing. Legg Mason (
LM) said Tuesday it has increased its capital base by $1.25 billion through the sale of 2.5% convertible senior notes to an affiliate of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.
Apart from the Citi news, investors had a fresh batch of economic data to ponder.
U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% in December, and were down 0.4% excluding autos. Meanwhile, November's 1.2% headline gain was revised down to 1.0%, while the 1.8% December ex-auto surge was revised to 1.7%. (October was also revised lower). Declines were broad-based. The data are weaker than expected, notes Action Economics, and will keep downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar.
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) edged down 0.1% in December, according to an Action Economics report, while the core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 0.2%, following hefty gains of 3.2% and 0.4%, respectively in November. On a year-over-year basis, producer prices were up 6.3% compared to a 7.2% pace previously. The core year-over-year rate is still posting a 2.0% growth pace, at the top of the Fed's comfort zone, according to Action.
Business inventories rose 0.4% in November, in line with expectations. Sales jumped 1.7%, lowering the inventory/sales ratio to 1.24 months from 1.26 in October and 1.31 in Nov. 2006.
Also, the Empire State index of manufacturing conditions fell to 9.03 in January (median forecast of 8.6) from December's result of 9.80 (revised from 10.3). The headline print was the lowest since May, 2007.
Fed funds futures action on Tuesday showed that investors are betting the Fed will cut interest rates by as much as three-quarters of a percentage point at or by the central bank’s Jan. 30 policy meeting, reports S&P.
February West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, which hit a $93.12 high
Early in the session, lost $2.30 to $91.90 per barrel as Tuesday's economic data suggest the U.S. is either in -- or headed into – a recession, says S&P MarketScope. President Bush asked OPEC to pump more oil to bring prices down from near record levels.
COMEX February gold futures, which hit a $915.30 high early on, fell 80 cents to $902.60 per ounce.
Among other stocks in the news Tuesday, Genentech (
DNA) posted fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS of 69 cents vs. 61 cents one year earlier on a 9% rise in operating revenue. Its total U.S. product sales rose 7%. The biotech expects 2008 non-GAAP EPS of $3.30-$3.45. Citigroup reportedly said sales of oncology drugs Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan came in "light."
Williams-Sonoma (
WSM) posted 4.4% higher same-store sales for the 9-week holiday period ended Dec. 31. However, while the company was pleased with its holiday performance vs. the retail segment overall, it is seeing continued weakness in January, and now expects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $1.363-$1.385 billion and GAAP EPS of $1.11-$1.14. The company also announced a $150 million stock buyback.
Fair Isaac (
FIC) said it sees first-quarter EPS of 37 to 39 cents on revenue of $198-$200 million, below its previous guidance of about 45 cents on revenue of $205 million. The company sees second-quarter EPS of about 44 cents on revenue of about $205 million and fiscal 2008 EPS of $1.80-$1.90 on revenue of $825-$835 million.
European markets tumbled Tuesday, with losses accelerating as U.S. equities slumped. In London, the FTSE 100 index was down 3.06% at 6,025.60. In Paris, the CAC 40 index was off 2.83% at 5,250.82. Germany's DAX index shed 2.14% to 7,566.38.
Asian markets were lower overnight. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.98% to 13,972.63. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index tumbled 2.38% to 25,837.78.
Treasury Market
Treasury prices jumped Tuesday as December retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.4%, vs. the Street's mean estimate of a 0.1% rise, and Citigroup's record quarterly loss continue to fuel fears that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession.
The 10-year note was up 19/32 in price to 104-17/32 for a yield of 3.70% and the 30-year bond was up 1-06/32 to 111-27/32 for a yield of 4.29%. Meanwhile, the shorter-dated 2-year note was up 02/32 at 101-12/32 for a yield of 2.52% .